We’re a month and change away from conference tournaments and what’s what? Some storylines to chew on as we head into the homestretch.
- The best team in this state is Virginia, which likely needs an NCAA tournament berth if the Joanne Boyle era is to continue in Charlottesville. For what it’s worth Charlie Creme’s most recent bracketology gives the Cavs an invite, and they’re certainly in better shape than the 4-6 team that fell at Rutgers to end the nonconference season. That’s because Virginia won its first six league games, lost by two possessions at Duke and won three more before running into Louisville, a potential 1 or 2 seed. If the Cavs beat the teams they should (Tech, Miami, Wake Forest) and have a decent showing in the ACC tournament, you’d think they’d be NCAA-bound. But one more win over a top-RPI team, say Florida State, for example, could seal the deal. If the Seminioles look daunting behind a 19-4 mark, consider they just got upset by N.C. State. Take heart that Virginia topped Florida State last year 60-51. That was in JPJ, however. Thursday’s game is down south.
- So just a few days removed from “Groundhog Day,” do you feel like you’ve seen this Virginia Tech movie before? You know the one where the Hokies string together an above average nonconference slate only to falter in the ACC? With a month to go, Tech has matched its ACC win total of four from last year, Kenny Brooks’ first as coach and had a top-25 RPI win in beating Syracuse. Tech should add to that given what we see coming up: North Carolina, Virginia, Wake, Clemson, Notre Dame (not fond of this matchup, however) and Miami. The Hokies could overachieve and go 5-1 here or 4-2. They’ve got Virginia in Cassell, and the Hokies played Miami close the first time around. Could they do better than the WNIT? We’d like to think so.
- We thought this might be Norfolk State’s year to win the MEAC (no offense, Hampton). But Bethune- Cookman is 9-0, having just completed a sweep of the Spartans, who are on a slide. NSU has dropped four of its last five and will meet Hampton in the first round of the Battle of the Bay on Saturday. Bethune- Cookman has already defeated Hampton in the teams’ one and only meeting this season. We still have faith in David Six’s trapping defense come tournament time. While Six has six MEAC championships, which admittedly has something of a ring to it, seven for Six sounds even better for a team that is Big South bound next year.
JMU or Elon or Drexel? The Phoenix handed the Dukes their lone season loss on Sunday — Logan Reynolds, Lexie Barrier and Kayla Cooper Williams finished 0-of-19 in that one. We saw from last season that Charlotte Smith can get her team to peak at the right time. The Dukes can’t afford another offensive outing like Sunday’s, which also included finishing 15-of-24 from the stripe. As for the Dragons, they host the tournament for the first time ever this season and the CAA’s longest tenured coach, Denise Dillon, knows a thing or two about playing good ball in March. Drexel-JMU meet in Philly on Feb. 23. A win there likely means the Dukes avoid both the Phoenix or Dragons until the conference final. A caveat: Don’t overlook Northeastern, JMU. The teams play Thursday; the Huskies have won four of their last five five.
Two elsewhere notes. Liberty is on a roll in the Big South — the 9-1 conference mark includes a seven-point loss at 
UNC Asheville. Those two square off again at the Vines Center on Feb. 17. How about Keyen Green leading the league with a .591 FG percentage? BTW, she is the Big South POW for the first time in her career. And in the A-10, while it looks to belong to Dayton with Duquesne right there, we like what’s going on in Fairfax. The Patriots are 18-6 and in good shape to win 20 games for the first time since the 2000-01 season. Checked on #Butlerdidit yet? Nice stuff.